This weekend, we have a PPV card in Atlanta. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a great deal of money from this week and that I can not wait to chase those big prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $30k belongs to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will try to receive my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at that $30k decoration, and then I will likely have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a fantastic quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — STACK — Max Holloway $9,100 and Dustin Poirier $7,100
This was the very first thing I did when salaries were released. I put both of these fighters in my money lineup and I began building out there. I anticipate this to be among the greatest fights ever and that I believe we get ~200 complete DK points from this fight, plus the guaranteed win. I’m ok with taking the reduction when I can guarantee myself over 100 points together with the stack, but I think 150 is a safe projection for this struggle and if we can lock up 3 additional wins we should win the majority of our money games. As I always saywe don’t need 6 wins for cash games so there’s really no need to pursue it. Just lock in a safe lineup that you believe will score more than 400 total points and you should win more H2Hs than you lose.
GPP play of the week — Nikita Krylov — $8,200
Krylov is my GPP play of the week because he’s the definition of boom or bust. He loses or scores over 100 DK points. That is what we want in GPPs. This isn’t a confident pick in him winning it is only a shot at his ceiling which is what we search for in the huge GPPs where we’re trying to acquire the best $30k prize. Krylov has completed all 24 of his own wins and he has only seen the 3rd around once in his profession. This is a good struggle to target on both sides, but I am taking Krylov to get the win and that I have a good amount of exposure to him this weekend.
Underdog drama of this week — Dustin Poirier — $7,100
I had to put Poirier here. I adore his floor and I believe he’s a live underdog. But IF he wins, he will 100% wind up on the 1st place lineup at his $7.1k price-tag. He’s likely to score over 100 DK points if he is able to get a victory here and that is what we’re pursuing in GPPs. Even if you believe Max will dominate Poirier that I think you should have at least 1 hedge lineup using Poirier, which is an all-in fight for me. Every lineup I build will start with Dustin or Max and I’ll go on from there. Load up on this fight and make sure you find any Poirier exposure.
Fade of this week — Boston Salmon ($8,600)
It was hard to select a fade of this week this week because I think you can make an argument for rostering everyone. I wanted to choose a favorite though and I think that the favored with among those reduced ceilings is Salmon. I’m picking him to win but that he won’t be going for almost any takedowns and if he doesn’t get a finish he likely does not pay off his $8.6k price . I need at least 10x (86-points) when I’m rostering someone and I really don’t see him getting that unless he receives a knockout. Taha is hard so that I don’t see the knockout happening. I believe Salmon does get a unanimous decision win here but it probably scores in the 70’s and that won’t win us the large $30k. That’s why he’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 66-41 for +220.23un (+$22,023) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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