Together with the UFC’s next pay-per-view event just more than three months away, it’s time to start taking a look at the betting odds for your card. Two streaks on the card have lines introduced, and they’re about as different as can be. In the primary event, T.J. Dillashaw will defend his newly won UFC bantamweight title against the man he took it from, Renan Barao. In their first battle, Barao closed as a enormous -910 favorite (wager $910 to acquire $100) over Dillashaw. The Team Alpha Male member dominated that first battle, scoring a fifth-round TKO in among the biggest anti upsets in UFC history. This time, the odds are much closer, with Dillashaw sitting in -140 and Barao the little underdog at +120 (bet $100 to win $120). There are eight extra bouts on the card that up until now didn’t have gambling lines posted. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas changed that today as he published the complete UFC 177 betting odds at 5Dimes Sportsbook. ———- MAIN CARD (PPV, 10pm ET) UFC Bantamweight Title TJ Dillashaw -140 Renan Barao +100 Tony Ferguson -265 Danny Castillo +185 Bethe Correia -160 Shayna Baszler +120 Carlos Diego Ferreira -280 Ramsey Nijem +200 Yancy Medeiros -135 Damon Jackson -105 ————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET) Lorenz Larkin -140 Derek Brunson +100 Henry Cejudo -185 Scott Jorgensen +145 Anthony Hamilton -210 Ruan Potts +160 Joe Soto -125 Anthony Birchak -115 ————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Night, 7:30pm ET) Chris Wade -140 Cain Carrizosa +100 ————– Brad’s Evaluation: I really want Bethe Correia to win this fight, so that I never have to listen to anything about the absurd”Four Horsewomen” ever again. That said, Correia has never confronted anyone of Baszler’s skill level, especially when it comes to grappling. I believe Baszler is able to sift through Correia’s drag and striking this fight to the floor where she’ll have a distinct edge. The greatest worry for me is about Baszler’s long layoff and injury woes of late, which can be more than sufficient to keep me from gambling her. Tony Ferguson appears like a nightmare matchup for Danny Castillo. Castillo has been labeled on the toes several times prior to, and unlike his charms against Tim Means or Anthony Njokuanihe will not have the ability to fall back on his wrestling here if the striking doesn’t go to plan. This ought to be quite competitive in all areas, but Ferguson has minor edges that ought to propel him to success. Lorenz Larkin is only 27, but the decline in his performances of late night makes him seem more like a 37-year-old. He seemed totally listless against Brad Tavares for 10 minutes, and was immediately dispatched by Costas Philippou. On the flip side, Derek Brunson provided the toughest test of Yoel Romero’s career in his latest bout. It seems like Larkin was extremely overvalued as a prospect while in Strikeforce, while Brunson was overlooked. This is an extremely tough bout to call regarding a negative or a total, so I’ll likely stay away completely. On the other hand, I believe Ramsey Nijem is in for a rough night against Carlos Diego Ferreira. Nijem may have a wrestling advantage here, but even that’s questionable. Ferreira is the much better entry grappler, and probably even the better striker at this stage (though Nijem’s advancement in that respect last time outside was nice to see). I expect Ferreira to get the win, and likely put another finish on his resume from his submission skills or Nijem’s questionable chin. Henry Cejudo always made for fascinating bouts when he was facing completely overmatched competition, so he’s up against a legitimate evaluation in Scott Jorgensen, I must admit this is among my most anticipated bouts on the card. The physical advantages here belong to Cejudo, as does the wrestling edge, obviously. He may not have the well-rounded skill set to stop Jorgensen, but I think he wins rounds with takedowns and scrambling. Cejudo handed one of the vital tests for prospects in his final outing too, getting broken square to the jaw and shaking off it to win not just the fight, but round as well. The major question with Cejudo, as always, is: how focused is he? Perhaps being signed by the UFC was that the impetus he needed to start taking the sport seriously, as in his previous appearances (and non-appearances) using Legacy FC, it is quite obvious he’s been coasting occasionally. Against Jorgensen that he might not be able to eliminate a half effort, and if he does it’ll make him much more special. A Legacy veteran making his UFC debut with less fanfare is 39-year-old Richard Odoms. His sole loss came to UFC heavyweight Jared Rosholt, but he has generally been in a position to restrain and outhustle opponents to pick up decisions. That will be difficult against Ruslan Magomedov, who actually possesses decent cardio to get a heavyweight, to go along with his strong striking. Coming off of nearly a year layoff, it is difficult to expect much from Odoms, so that I expect Magomedov to pick up the win, but he’s somebody I completely expect to fade when he could get a few more wins and face decent competition. The hype on Yancy Medeiros came a bit too quickly, and should almost be snuffed out at this point. His striking defense looked atrocious against both Yves Edwards and Jim Miller, along with his entry game was practically non-existent since he had been tapped within seconds of hitting the ground against Miller. Maybe that could work to the advantage of his backers against Justin Edwards nevertheless, as Edwards really isn’t UFC caliber, even at this point. Edwards has a fantastic guillotine, and not many other abilities, so Medeiros has this struggle to win as long as he doesn’t dive in that weapon. Edwards will probably come out quickly, because he should know that a win will mark the end of the UFC employ. Talking of pink-slip derbies, the loser of Ruan Potts and Anthony Hamilton will likely be shown the door as well, because both place on foul dislpays in their UFC debuts. Potts is an aggressive — but not overly talented — grappler, although Hamilton showed enormous holes in his grappling against Alexey Oleinik. On the flip side, Hamilton has some power and Potts was set out with one shot on the ground against Soa Palelei. Either guy could finish this fight quickly and that I would not be surprised, or else they could play it safe and we can be treated to a truly awful heavyweight MMA. If the price for this bout to go over 1.5 rounds is high enough, I might just have a shot in hopes the bout really is of the hilariously bad variety, but I can’t see myself putting much more than Monopoly money down on this competition.
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